IMF 아시아 부동산 하락전망

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-Policy-Papers/Issues/2022/12/13/Housing-Market-Stability-and-Affordability-in-Asia-Pacific-513882

 

Housing Market Stability and Affordability in Asia-Pacific

The paper intends to highlight challenges in Asian housing markets linked to fast price rises especially in the advanced economies since COVID, and more broadly including many EMs in the period leading up to COVID. It aims to draw policy lessons on how to

www.imf.org

하락은 22분기간 지속되고, 낙폭은 -33% . 

 

(Figure 2).3 Housing cycles tend to be larger in AEs, with Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Korea, and Singapore and having larger average peak-totrough housing price declines than the United States (used here as a comparison). Developing economies in Asia-Pacific tended to have a smaller, but more frequent, housing cycles. Some housing price adjustments were particularly sizable. Many economies have experienced contractions of 30 percent or larger, with Hong Kong SAR, Japan, and New Zealand having experienced adjustments comparable to, or larger than, the housing cycle in the United States in the 2000s (Table 1). The depth and the duration of housing market downturns can be influenced by interactions between macroeconomic conditions and financial markets (Claessens, Kose, and Terrones 2008), and the role of the credit channel is critical to understanding the propagation of housing market shocks to the economy

 

(그림 2).3 주택 주기는
AE, 홍콩 SAR, 일본, 한국 및 싱가포르는  미국보다 평균 최고점에서 최저점까지 주택 가격 하락 폭이 더 큼
(여기서는 비교용으로 사용됨). 개도국 아시아 태평양 지역의 경제는 작지만 더 빈번한 주택 주기.
일부 주택 가격 조정은 특히 상당한 규모였습니다. 많은 경제가 경험한
30% 이상의 수축, 홍콩 특별행정구, 일본, 뉴질랜드 에 필적하는 조정을 경험했거나
미국의 주택 주기보다 큼 2000년대의 주(표 1). 깊이와 주택 시장 침체 기간은
거시 경제 상황과 금융 시장 간의 상호 작용에 의해 영향을 받음 (Claessens, Kose 및 Terrones 2008) 및
신용 채널의 역할은 주택 시장의 전파를 이해하는 데 중요.